Not so long ago, the Russians’ biggest fear was that the United States might accidently or deliberately annihilate them with a shower of nuclear weapons.  As evidence that some things have actually gotten better in the last couple decades, the Russians are now focused on a different kind of fear – that the Asteroid 99942 Apophis will smash into the earth sometime around the year 2032.  And Russia, having more real estate than any other country, would naturally be the biggest target.   So, what to do?

Well, the Russians have no intention of just kicking back and waiting to get hit – like they did in 1908 when the Tunguska meteorite landed in Siberia and knocked over about 80 million trees (fortunately, there are many parts of Russia that can sustain a hit of that magnitude without any loss of life).   No, the Russians have already begun planning a mission to deflect Apophis and steer it safely away from Earth…if necessary.

It’s not all that likely to be necessary, though.  While scientists once thought Apophis had a 2.7% chance of hitting earth on its first pass in 2029, they have since determined that it will miss by a comfortable 18,000 miles.  But Apophis appears to be a determined little asteroid and will take another shot at Earth in 2032 and, again, in 2068.  On its second pass, the odds of it hitting Earth are approximately 1-in-250,000 and on its third pass 1-in-333,000.

But the Russians are taking no chances.  They are exploring a variety of plans – to be developed over the next two decades – to avert this potential disaster.  One calls for landing a spacecraft on the asteroid and steering it away from Earth.  Another would involve striking it with missiles to alter its course.  A third would use satellites exerting gravitational pull to change Apophis’ orbit.

Last we checked, Russia had other more immediate problems – like a faltering economy, a revolt in Chechnya, official corruption, and a Prime minister who thinks he’s still President.  But their determination to not leave their fate to chance is instructive for other nations.  As we develop greater and greater capability to achieve astonishing feats of science and technology, will we feel compelled to do so?  Even if the threat is only 1-in-333,000, will we feel that it is irresponsible not to spend a couple billion dollars to insure against it?

Russia is optimistic that it will be able to enlist the support of the United States, China, and other nations in this endeavor.  Put us down as skeptical.